UPDATE 2/7/20 … aka five days later! Well, as the whole world knows, the caucus results were an absolute fiasco. Even now we’re not 100% sure who won. What does re-canvassing even entail?! At least we’re 100% sure who lost - the Iowa caucuses. I reckon we won’t be doing this again next time. What a shame for all the campaign volunteers who worked so hard and the Iowans who studied up and went out to caucus in their free time.
Anyway, with whatever we have in hand, I’d like to re-visit my spread. I’m less invested in being right than in figuring out how to improve my predictive skills - to whatever extent that is even possible. So for each candidate, I’m going to examine what I got right and what I got wrong.
SANDERS
What I got right: I predicted he’d come in first, with the Judgement card, and I feel pretty good about that. At least in raw vote totals, Sanders leads by 2500+ votes. The Sanders campaign would certainly agree that I called it! - if no one else.
What I got wrong: Raw vote totals don’t actually matter. The real issue is State Delegate Equivalents (SDE’s). In SDE’s, Sanders is in a dead heat with Buttigieg, with Buttigieg having the advantage by a razor-thin 0.1%
WARREN
What I got right: In my comments, I predicted Warren would come in 2nd or 3rd. In my final list, I also guessed 3rd. She came in 3rd.
What I got wrong: Nothing! [dusts off shoulders]
BIDEN
What I got right: I said he’d be looking ahead to NH and especially SC. Boy was that ever true.
What I got wrong: I really thought Queen of Wands suggested he’d do better. I pegged him at 2nd, and as it turned out, infamously, he miserably trailed in 4th. Maybe I should not use court cards to predict victory or failure - I had the same problem with the King of Wands and the Superbowl (as well as, by the way, the King of Wands and my final exam in cooking school 20 years ago!).
BUTTIGIEG
What I got right: Well, this is the most interesting of all. I did say that the Moon rx was a wild card, and that it could “indicate fame and visibility”.
What I got wrong: I thought the Moon, especially reversed, was far too uncertain a card to indicate a 1st-place showing - and yet, at least in SDE’s, that’s exactly what Buttigieg got.
But even moreso, I think the Moon rx telegraphed a lot of other things: 1) the uncertainty of the results; 2) the presence of all-important Mercury in Pisces, which is the Moon’s astrological correspondence, and also where Mercury has the worst possible dignity of all (not to mention being in the shadow of its retrograde- explaining the tech issues; 3) the Moon could also signify the notorious Shadow, Inc. app itself, which was the source of all the issues. And finally, 4), I suspect that the Moon rx suggests the Buttigieg lead may not be durable, and that it may reverse over the course of the coming month. Regardless, I personally plan to get behind whoever the nominee ends up being, and for the sake of the country, I hope you do too.
So last night, I attempted to forecast the Superbowl outcome. I drew the King of Wands for the 49ers, and the 8 of Swords reversed for the Chiefs. I projected - as I think most readers would looking at those cards - that the 49ers would win, and I was dead wrong. In retrospect, the 8 of Swords reversed could well have signaled “busting out of a bind” - which did happen for the Chiefs. But it’s just not the most obvious reading of the card. Oh well, at least the cards were right on with the uniforms, down to the gold “helmet” on the King of Wands!
My point is, take these predictions with many, many grains of salt. At least a tablespoon. I did have some success divining the 2018 midterms, and I once predicted a Packers win with the 7 of Wands. But like everybody else I got the 2016 election wrong. (I read a 9 of Pentacles reversed as a Hillary win.) The one thing I’ve learned is, don’t ignore the reversals. So for predictive purposes, I’m going to read reversals in a very orthodox way - opposite of upright meaning - that I normally avoid.
This spread specifically concerns the 4 current Democratic leading contenders, and the Iowans - I totally don't envy them - who must choose today. They are ordered roughly left to right by political leaning, and my own preferences (which are up in the air anyway) played no part in structuring the spread.
Here's my interpretation:
SANDERS: Judgement. A momentous, role-defining night for certain. This could indicate his seizing the lead and even the nomination. (I should also mention, though heaven forfend, it's also the card I use to indicate death.) I also drew Judgement for my one of my own daily cards today, which seems like an extra hit.
WARREN: 5 of Swords. The card of winners and losers is also known as the "Lord of Defeat". Although the card can signify winning with hard feelings all around, that seems unlikely. It’s more probable that Warren does not pull out the win. I suspect it's a 2nd or 3rd place finish, and a bit of a bitter pill.
BUTTIGIEG: The Moon rx. See note above about reversals. Besides being an inherently uncertain card, this is the only reversal of the four cards drawn. While the Moon can indicate fame and visibility, it's far from a guarantee of success. The reversal in this case strikes me as a bit ominous, but honestly, with this card anything could happen.
BIDEN: Queen of Wands. This looks reasonably positive for Biden. I'm not sure where he ends up, though I don't think he wins Iowa. Regardless, he is moving on in the race, and - you can see it in the body language - he’s looking ahead to NH and especially SC.
As for the Iowa voter: Queen of Swords! They are excited to be almost done with this process. I mean they've really had enough at this point. We all know the watchword is "electability" in Iowa as elsewhere - which suggests, as does the card, that they will be picking with their head rather than their heart. Particularly when it comes to realignment after the initial tally.
If you forced me to rank the likely finish based on this reading, I'd say:
1. Sanders
2. Biden
3. Warren
4. ?Buttigieg?
....with Buttigieg really being a bit of a wild card here (i.e., anything could happen as far as he's concerned.) Also, I have no idea how many "tickets out of Iowa" there are. At least two. Probably not four.
No matter what, I will be following the outcome with bated breath, as will so many of us.